Wind Wakeup ComboTier 1
at Taichung Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.2% | -1.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 33.9% | -10.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 68.0% | +13.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.9% | +10.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.1% | -0.5 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 45.6% | -3.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.0% | +10.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.8 |
| Water Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concealed Marksman | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Aether's Embrace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peer Beyond | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Squallsnare | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiled Dash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Draught of Stamina | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |